Can you guess what conjecture means? It's a word to use when you are not sure of something and have to "guess or surmise."

You can see how the word conjecture means that you create a theory or opinion about something without basing it in fact because the original definition of conjecture, from Old French, is "interpretation of signs and omens." Since signs and omens are pretty subjective, it makes sense that the word would then move to its current meaning. However, even though it only seems like weather reports are conjectures, they are actually based on evidence!

Definitions of conjecture

v believe especially on uncertain or tentative grounds

hypothecate, hypothesise, hypothesize, speculate, suppose, theorise, theorize
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construct, reconstruct, retrace
reassemble mentally
develop, explicate, formulate
elaborate, as of theories and hypotheses
etymologise, etymologize
construct the history of words
develop and work out fully in one's mind
redevelop, reformulate
formulate or develop again, of an improved theory or hypothesis
Type of:
anticipate, expect
regard something as probable or likely

n reasoning that involves the formation of conclusions from incomplete evidence

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theorisation, theorization
the production or use of theories
supposal, supposition
the cognitive process of supposing
imaginary or visionary theorization
the act of presupposing; a supposition made prior to having knowledge (as for the purpose of argument)
abstraction, generalisation, generalization
the process of formulating general concepts by abstracting common properties of instances
Type of:
abstract thought, logical thinking, reasoning
thinking that is coherent and logical

n a hypothesis that has been formed by speculating or conjecturing (usually with little hard evidence)

“he dismissed it as mere conjecture
Type of:
hypothesis, possibility, theory
a tentative insight into the natural world; a concept that is not yet verified but that if true would explain certain facts or phenomena

n a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence

guess, hypothesis, speculation, supposition, surmisal, surmise
successful conjecture by unusual insight or good luck
Type of:
opinion, view
a message expressing a belief about something; the expression of a belief that is held with confidence but not substantiated by positive knowledge or proof

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