If you're absolutely convinced your team is going to the Super Bowl, you state it with certitude or confidence.
Your team didn't make it? Oh dear, you were guilty of certitude — an absolute conviction that the outcome of the game did not support. In other words, you were a tad cocky. Certitude is very similar to certainty, and often used interchangeably, but there's a hint of danger about certitude; someone who displays it may well be overconfident. Certainty is more certain.